Publikationsliste KOPS

There has been a recent surge of political actors and groups challenging the legitimacy of established political institutions and mass media. We argue that this wave is no accident; rather, it is driven by digital media. Digital media allow outside challengers to route around social institutions that structure political discourse, such as parties and legacy media, which have previously held a monopoly on political coordination and information distribution. Digital media have weakened the power of these institutions, allowing outsiders to maintain extreme positions that formerly would have been filtered out or suppressed by institutions structuring political discourse. In this article, we explicate mechanisms linking digital media to the rise of outsiders by discussing the successes of a diverse set of challengers fighting for attention and representation in the different political contexts of the United States, Germany, and China. We thus provide a novel explanation that systematically accounts for the political consequences of digital media.

Einleitung:
In psychologischen Theorien zur Gesundheitsverhaltensförderung nehmen soziale Konstrukte, wie z.B. Normwahrnehmung, einen zentralen Platz ein. Das tatsächliche Verhalten in sozialen Kontexten wird dabei oft außer Acht gelassen. In diesem Vortrag wird daher darauf eingegangen, inwiefern Normwahrnehmungen innerhalb eines sozialen Netzwerks soziale Einflüsse beim Alkoholkonsum erklären können.

Methoden:
109 Psychologiestudierende wurden zu drei Messzeitpunkten innerhalb des ersten Semesters zu ihren alkoholbezogenen Kognitionen, Alkoholkonsum und Freunden innerhalb des Semesters befragt. Zur Vorhersage sozialer Einflüsse auf Alkoholkonsum und Freundschaftsentwicklungen wurden RSiena Modelle angewandt.

Ergebnisse:
Der durchschnittliche Alkoholkonsum von Freunden im Semester sagte den Konsum zum nächsten Messzeitpunkt auch nach der Kontrolle von Kognitionen, wie der Wahrnehmung vom Verhalten der Freunde, vorher (b = 1,89, OR = 6,64, 95%CI [1,28; 34,50], p = 0,022).

Diskussion:
Soziale Einflüsse beim Alkoholkonsum von Erstsemestern können nicht vollständig durch kognitive Konstrukte wie Normwahrnehmungen aufgeklärt werden. Dies suggeriert, dass es zusätzliche soziale Kontexteinflüsse gibt.

What theories explain variation in public opinion toward asylum seekers? We implement a survey experiment in which a representative sample of German residents evaluates vignettes of asylum seekers, which randomly vary attributes that speak to deservingness, economic and religious threat, and gender considerations of attitude formation. We find strong support for deservingness theories. Economic and religious threat theories also receive empirical support. Gender plays a negligible role. Importantly, we also document that economic and—to a lesser extent—religious threat considerations only matter when respondents evaluate economic refugees. By contrast, political refugees are welcomed nearly unconditionally. Our paper thus replicates key findings from Bansak, Hainmueller, and Hangartner (2016) and Czymara and Schmidt-Catran (2016) using a representative sample and points to an important interaction effect in public opinion formation toward asylum seekers: economic threat only gets activated when refugees’ deservingness is in doubt.

The number of migrants worldwide has grown rapidly in recent years and their integration poses challenges such as cultural and language barriers for organizations and societies. Securing and maintaining employment is a key challenge for migrants, yet management research has devoted little attention to migration. We aim to contribute to the emerging literature on this topic by utilizing objective and time-lagged field data from 14,327 mail carriers nested in 737 delivery units of a large Swiss logistics firm. We investigate the link between in/congruence of the number of employees and customers with migration background and customer complaints. Controlling for service quality, we find that congruence between mail carriers and their customers (both low and both high numbers of migrants) is associated with fewer customer complaints, the latter suggesting the existence of a common migrant identity despite national and cultural differences. Surprisingly, we found that it does not matter whether more employees or customers relative to the other group have a migration background, as the results from both incongruence scenarios show increased complaints. We find that units that receive more complaints experience higher rates of voluntary turnover, highlighting how unfair customer complaints can hurt organizations twice, by increasing the risk of loss in both customers and employees.

How do institutional logics travel within a political economy? Employing insights from historical and ideational institutionalist theory, this article offers a novel understanding of change dynamics as driven by actors’ creation of institutional interlinkages. It develops the causal mechanism of “invasion from within,” consisting of a three-stage process: the progressive weakening of a policy paradigm within one institutional site coinciding with a strengthening of the policy paradigm in another; the building of a coalition within the exporting field; and the use of framing strategies to “localize” adjacent logics of action and delegitimize adversarial coalitions. The analytical purchase of the argument is corroborated through process tracing of the German pension paradigm shift during the 1990s, showing that ideas about private capital formation developed in finance were redirected toward old-age provision and strategically transferred to the pension arena by a coalition of actors from the German finance domain.

Even though human behavior is largely driven by real-time feedback from others, this social complexity is underrepresented in psychological theory, largely because it is so difficult to isolate. In this work, we performed a quasi-experimental analysis of hundreds of millions of chat room messages between young people. This allowed us to reconstruct how-and on what timeline-the valence of one message affects the valence of subsequent messages by others. For the highly emotionally valenced chat messages that we focused on, we found that these messages elicited a general increase of 0.1 to 0.4 messages per minute. This influence started 2 s after the original message and continued out to 60 s. Expanding our focus to include feedback loops-the way a speaker's chat comes back to affect him or her-we found that the stimulating effects of these same chat events started rippling back from others 8 s after the original message, to cause an increase in the speaker's chat that persisted for up to 8 min. This feedback accounted for at least 1% of the bulk of chat. Additionally, a message's valence affects its dynamics, with negative events feeding back more slowly and continuing to affect the speaker longer. By reconstructing the second-by-second dynamics of many psychosocial processes in aggregate, we captured the timescales at which they collectively ripple through a social system to drive system-level outcomes.

Peace is fragile, about half of all peace episodes break down within the first eight post‐conflict years. In Sub‐Saharan Africa this risk is even higher. Using survival analysis this paper suggests that while it is difficult to find correlates of peace stabilization, there are some policy relevant results. How a conflict ends is important. Negotiated settlements are fragile but the chances of peace surviving can be significantly improved through the deployment of UN peacekeeping operations. This also appears to be the case for Sub‐Saharan Africa but case study evidence suggests that peacekeepers face particularly complex situations in the region and should therefore be well resourced in order to increase their chance of success.

Objective: This paper investigates commuting and interregional migration from eastern to western Germany, and asks, first: Who chooses to migrate and who chooses to commute? Second: Does commuting serve as a stepping-stone or as a long-term alternative to migration? And third: What role does education and educational–occupational mismatch play in those choices?
Methods: We use the Socio-Economic Panel data from 1992 to 2013 and multilevel multinomial logit models with random effects, as well as cross-classified multilevel logit with random effects.
Results: People with higher education are more likely to migrate than to remain immobile or to commute, while people who have spent less time in education are more likely to commute than to remain immobile or to migrate. Educational–occupational mismatches reduce the likelihood of migration for both men and women, but they reduce the likelihood of commuting only for men. For women, educational–occupational mismatches increase the likelihood of commuting. Moreover, commuting serves as a stepping-stone to migration, rather than as a long-term alternative to it, especially for the highly educated.
Contribution: We investigate the relationship between migration and commuting more directly than has been the case in previous research. Moreover, we advance previous research by showing how educational–occupational mismatch influences decisions as to whether to commute or to migrate. Our analysis shows how education, educational–occupational mismatch, and gender are interrelated and intertwined with each other, and how gender-specific mobility patterns follow from these interrelations.

Do online ads influence vote choice? We partner with a German party to evaluate the effectiveness of online ads using a cluster-randomized experiment. During the 2016 Berlin state election, 189 postal districts were randomly assigned to (a) emotional ads; (b) factual ads; or (c) no ads. Analyzing electoral results at the postal district level, we find that the overall campaign weakly increased the party’s vote share by 0.7 percentage points (p-value = 0.155). We also estimate a negative effect of the campaign on the vote share of the party’s main competitors of 1.4 percentage points (p-value = 0.094). Turning to the mechanism of persuasion, we find that the factual ads, if anything, fared slightly better than the emotional ads. Our evidence thus provides tentative support that online ads positively affect vote choice.

A theoretical model linking achievement and emotions is proposed. The model posits that individual achievement promotes positive achievement emotions and reduces negative achievement emotions. In contrast, group-level achievement is thought to reduce individuals' positive emotions and increase their negative emotions. The model was tested using one cross-sectional and two longitudinal datasets on 5th to 10th grade students' achievement emotions in mathematics (Studies 1-3: Ns = 1,610, 1,759, and 4,353, respectively). Multilevel latent structural equation modeling confirmed that individual achievement had positive predictive effects on positive emotions (enjoyment, pride) and negative predictive effects on negative emotions (anger, anxiety, shame, and hopelessness), controlling for prior achievement, autoregressive effects, reciprocal effects, gender, and socioeconomic status (SES). Class-level achievement had negative compositional effects on the positive emotions and positive compositional effects on the negative emotions. Additional analyses suggested that self-concept of ability is a possible mediator of these effects. Furthermore, there were positive compositional effects of class-level achievement on individual achievement in Study 2 but not in Study 3, indicating that negative compositional effects on emotion are not reliably counteracted by positive effects on performance. The results were robust across studies, age groups, synchronous versus longitudinal analysis, and latent-manifest versus doubly latent modeling. These findings imply that individual success drives emotional well-being, whereas placing individuals in high-achieving groups can undermine well-being. Thus, the findings challenge policy and practice decisions on achievement-contingent allocation of individuals to groups.

The debate on effects of globalisation on welfare states is extensive. Often couched in terms of a battle between the compensation and the efficiency theses, the scholarly literature has provided contradictory arguments and findings. This article contributes to the scholarly debate by exploring in greater detail the micro-level foundations of compensation theory. More specifically, we distinguish between individual policy preferences for compensatory social policies (unemployment insurance) and human capital-focused social investment policies (education), and expect globalisation to mainly affect demand for educational investment. A multi-level analysis of International Social Survey Programme (ISSP) survey data provides empirical support for this hypothesis. This finding provides an important revision and extension of the classical analytical perspective of compensation theory, because it shows that citizens value the social investment function of the welfare state above and beyond simple compensation via social transfers. This might be particularly relevant in today's skill-centred knowledge economies.

Voting advice applications (VAAs) are voter information tools that millions of individuals have used in recent elections throughout the world. However, little is known about how they affect political behavior. Until now, observational studies of VAA have produced inconclusive results. Here we present the results from a randomized field experiment in Switzerland that estimates the causal effects of VAA use on voters’ vote intentions. Our results suggest that usage of the Swiss VAA smartvote strengthened the vote intention for the most preferred party and also increased the number of parties considered as potential vote options. These results imply that VAAs can influence voting behavior and that they can play an important role in electoral politics.

Previous research on the determinants of homesickness has tended to produce inconsistent results and relied mostly on cross-sectional assessments. To capture the longitudinal perspective, we conducted a smartphone app-based study, monitoring the emergence and volatility of homesickness in international university exchange students (n = 148). Applying an experience sampling method (ESM), homesickness was measured every second day over a period of 3 months followed by a post hoc questionnaire to assess potential moderators. Multilevel modeling revealed that whereas age, Extraversion, Conscientiousness, Openness to Experience, voluntariness, previous stays abroad, support from host university, geographical distance, co- and host national identification, language proficiency, and pre-data collection duration of stay did not yield any effects, being male, scoring high on Neuroticism as well as Agreeableness, having difficulties in sociocultural adaptation, and being at the beginning of the stay (as opposed to later on) were related to higher levels of homesickness. Corroborating the latter finding, curve estimation regression analyses showed that homesickness normally peaks immediately after relocation and fades away afterward. Together with the low overall intensities of homesickness found in the present sample, the results suggest that homesickness is a common but mild adverse by-product of international student mobility.

The major influx of refugees to Europe, especially in 2015, has led to immense solidarity, but also hostility among European citizens. In the wake of the so-called ‘refugee crisis’ country differences in the willingness to help displaced people have become a salient issue of European integration. In this paper, we explain country differences in the public support for helping refugees across Europe at a critical time-point – spring 2016 – just after the influx of displaced people had peaked. Theoretically, we base our explanation of country differences on economic threat, inter-group contact, welfare state, and political framing theories. Using data from a Eurobarometer survey across the 28 EU member states, we show that solidarity with refugees varies significantly between countries. Controlling for individual characteristics of respondents and utilizing a multilevel design, we find that solidarity with refugees is highest in countries with an extensive welfare state and a historically high share of immigrants, whereas there is no effect of countries’ economic situation or strength of right-wing parties. On the individual level of respondents, however, we find that people with a more precarious economic background, little institutional trust, and a right-wing political orientation express lower solidarity with refugees.