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(2020): Wir Hamster : Das Horten von Nudeln und Klopapier zeigt, wie gefährlich Rationalität sein kann Frankfurter Allgemeine Sonntagszeitung. 22. März 2020, No. 12, pp. 56
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(2020): Linguistic Diversity, Multilingualism, and Cognitive Skills : A Study of Disadvantaged Children in India Languages. MDPI Publishing. 2020, 5(1), 10. eISSN 2226-471X. Available under: doi: 10.3390/languages5010010
Multilingualism and linguistic diversity are the norm in India. Although studies have shown a relation between bilingualism and cognitive gains, linguistic diversity has so far been ignored as a potential factor affecting cognitive skills. This study aims to fill this gap by examining how cognitive skills—as measured by the n-back and Raven’s Colored Progressive Matrices tasks—are affected by multilingualism and/or sociolinguistic diversity in a large cohort of socioeconomically disadvantaged primary school children in two urban sites of India: Delhi and Hyderabad. We present a questionnaire estimating sociolinguistic diversity and show that this measure assesses a distinct construct, as compared to a child’s multilingualism. Children were classified as growing up monolingually or bilingually, depending on whether they grew up with one or more languages in the home. Regarding cognitive performance, bilinguals were found to outperform monolinguals on the n-back task, as well as on the Raven’s task. In addition, a socially and linguistically diverse environment seems to enhance cognitive performance for children who are not multilingual themselves. Finally, several contextual factors such as city were found to influence cognitive performance. Overall, this shows that cognitive tasks are subject to contextual effects and that bilingualism and linguistic diversity can enhance cognitive performance of children in disadvantaged contexts.
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(2020): Internal and External Factors in Heritage Language Acquisition : Evidence From Heritage Russian in Israel, Germany, Norway, Latvia and the United Kingdom Frontiers in Education. Frontiers Media. 2020, 5, 20. eISSN 2504-284X. Available under: doi: 10.3389/feduc.2020.00020
In this paper, we consider elicited production data (real and nonce words tasks) from five different studies on the acquisition of grammatical gender in Heritage Russian, comparing children growing up in Germany, Israel, Norway, Latvia, and the United Kingdom. The children grow up in diverse heritage language backgrounds, ranging from small groups (in Norway) to large communities (in Latvia). Furthermore, the children vary with respect to family background (one or two Russian-speaking parents) as well as the intensity of instruction in the heritage language through complementary schools. Russian has a three-gender system (masculine, feminine, and neuter) with gender cues varying in their transparency, predictability and frequency. The majority languages that these children speak differ widely with respect to the linguistic property studied: While English has no grammatical gender, Latvian and Hebrew both have two-gender systems (feminine and masculine), as well as the Oslo and Tromsø dialects of Norwegian (masculine and neuter), while German has a three-gender system, with a feminine-masculine-neuter distinction, like Russian. However, the transparency of gender assignment varies greatly, with Hebrew and Latvian having predictable gender based on the shape of the noun, like Russian, while gender assignment in Norwegian is generally arbitrary and German is semi-transparent, with gender assignment tendencies rather than rules. The focus in the paper is on language-internal and language-external factors that may be (non-)facilitative for the acquisition of gender in Russian, i.e., possible cross-linguistic influence from the majority language and the importance of background factors, such as family situation, age at start of kindergarten, size of the Russian-speaking community, current exposure to Heritage Russian instruction, and the main language of instruction. Our results show no significant differences across groups with respect to the majority language, but clear effects of background variables, with family type, age, and current exposure to Heritage Russian instruction as the most important ones.
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(2020): Sovereign and private default risks over the business cycle Journal of International Economics. Elsevier. 2020, 123, 103293. ISSN 1932-8796. eISSN 1873-0353. Available under: doi: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2020.103293
Sovereign debt crises are often accompanied by deep recessions with sharp declines in external credit to the private sector. In a sample of emerging economies we find that both, sovereign and private interest rate spreads are countercyclical. This paper presents a model of a small open economy that accounts for these empirical regularities. It includes private firms, which finance a fraction of imports by external debt and are subject to idiosyncratic productivity risk, and a government, which borrows internationally and taxes firms to finance public expenditures. The model gives rise to endogenous private and sovereign interest rate spreads and a dynamic feedback mechanism between sovereign and private default risks through the endogenous response of fiscal policy to adverse productivity shocks.
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(2020): The political economy of budget trade-offs Journal of Public Policy. Cambridge University Press. 2020, 40(1), pp. 25-50. ISSN 0143-814X. eISSN 1469-7815. Available under: doi: 10.1017/S0143814X18000326
Because the American states operate under balanced budget requirements, increases in spending in one area typically entail equal and opposite budget cuts in other programs. The literature analysing the correlates of government spending by policy area has mostly ignored these trade-offs inherent to policymaking, failing to address one of the most politically interesting and important dimensions of fiscal policy. Borrowing from the statistical literature on compositional data, we present more appropriate and efficient methods that explicitly incorporate the budget constraint into models of spending by budget category. We apply these methods to eight categories of spending from the American states over the years 1984–2009 to reveal winners and losers in the scramble for government spending. Our findings show that partisan governments finance their distinct priorities by raiding spending items that the opposition prefers, while different political institutions, economic conditions and state demographics impose different trade-offs across the budget.
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(2020): The Road to Trust : A Vignette Study on the Determinants of Citizens' Trust in the European Commission Journal of Common Market Studies (JCMS). Wiley. 2020, 58(2), pp. 256-275. ISSN 0021-9886. eISSN 1468-5965. Available under: doi: 10.1111/jcms.12901
This article analyses the determinants of citizens' trust in the European Commission. We examined four predictors of citizens' trust in political institutions: political participation, value congruence, performance outcomes and attributability of performance outcomes. We argue that these factors impact trust in the European Commission, which is a necessary precondition for making a risky investment and willingness to pay taxes, which can be understood as behavioural consequences of trust. To examine our hypotheses we have implemented a vignette study. Our analyses show that value congruence, the European Commission's perceived performance and attributability impact risky investments via trust, as expected. Political participation exerts a direct significant influence on risky investments.
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(2020): Die politische Agenda Deutschlands Politische Vierteljahresschrift. Springer. 2020, 61(1), pp. 131-149. ISSN 0032-3470. eISSN 1862-2860. Available under: doi: 10.1007/s11615-020-00226-6
Der vorliegende Beitrag stellt eine neue, umfassende Datenbank über die politischen Agenden Deutschlands vor und zeigt ihr Potenzial in der politikwisssenschaftlichen Forschung auf. Dazu fassen wir im ersten Teil den theoretischen Hintergrund – Agendasetzung – kurz zusammen und stellen anschließend die Datenbank vor. Die Datenbank beinhaltet politische Aktivitäten aus allen Etappen des Policyprozesses: die Inputebene (Öffentliche Meinung und Wahlprogramme der Parteien), die Politikprozessebene (Regierungserklärungen, parlamentarische Anfragen und Gesetzesentwürfe) und die Outputebene (Gesetze). Beobachtungen aus jeder Ebene sind thematisch nach dem Schema des Comparative Agendas Project (CAP) codiert und umfassen den Zeitraum von 1977 bis 2013. Schließlich beschreiben wir die gesamte Datenbank kurz und illustrieren am Beispiel der Energiepolitik, wie dadurch politische Prozesse abgebildet und analysiert werden können. Die Datenbank ist zugänglich unter gpa.uni-konstanz.de.
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(2020): Exploring Change and Stability in Ukrainian Higher Education and Research : A Historical Analysis Through Multiple Critical Junctures Higher Education Policy. Springer. 2020, 33(1), pp. 111-133. ISSN 0952-8733. eISSN 1740-3863. Available under: doi: 10.1057/s41307-018-0105-9
This article examines shifts in the structures of Ukrainian higher education and research based on historical institutionalism with a focus on the dynamics of change and stability during critical junctures. We show how critical political junctures influence higher education, how institutions of higher education and research have experienced conversion and drift, and how international trends such as quality assurance and the concept of the research university have been implemented in Ukraine. We find that gradual institutional change (conversion) and deliberate non-change (drift) in a political environment characterized by widespread corruption have resulted in a high degree of diversion of both financial and intellectual resources. Due to a lack of political support for the implementation of reforms and rampant political favoritism, organizational forms frequently are mismatched with their core organizational tasks.
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(2020): Die Auswirkung von Digitalisierung auf Bildungs- und Sozialpolitik KLENK, Tanja, ed., Frank NULLMEIER, ed., Göttrik WEWER, ed.. Handbuch Digitalisierung in Staat und Verwaltung. Wiesbaden: Springer Fachmedien Wiesbaden, 2020, pp. 1-10. ISBN 978-3-658-23669-4. Available under: doi: 10.1007/978-3-658-23669-4_42-1
In öffentlichen Debatten zu den Auswirkungen der digitalen Revolution auf die Arbeitsmärkte dominieren häufig pessimistische Zukunftsszenarien, die einen massiven Abbau von Beschäftigung und zunehmende Ungleichheit erwarten lassen. Im Gegensatz dazu gibt dieser Beitrag eine kurze Einführung in die sozialwissenschaftliche Forschung zu diesem Thema, die wesentlich differenziertere Befunde liefert. Ein weiterer Schwerpunkt dieses Kapitels ist die Diskussion der bildungs- und sozialpolitischen Reaktionen auf strukturelle Veränderungen im Zusammenhang mit der Digitalisierung. Hier werden unterschiedliche Policy-Lösungen wie Weiterbildung, lebenslanges Lernen, aktive Arbeitsmarktpolitik und das bedingungslose Grundeinkommen angesprochen. Das Kapitel schließt mit einer These zu den künftigen Entwicklungen, die besagt, dass politische Faktoren und Entscheidungen einen maßgeblichen Einfluss darauf haben werden, ob die Digitalisierung zu einer Verschärfung sozio-ökonomischer Ungleichheit beiträgt oder diese lindert.
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(2020): A Restrictionist Revolution? : A Counter-Intuitive Reading of the ECtHR’s N.D. & N.T.-Judgment on ‘Hot Expulsions’ at the Spanish-Moroccan Border Verfassungsblog : On Matters Constitutional
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(2020): At Home and Abroad : The Use of Denial-of-service Attacks during Elections in Nondemocratic Regimes Journal of Conflict Resolution. Sage Publications. 2020, 64(2-3), pp. 373-401. ISSN 0022-0027. eISSN 1552-8766. Available under: doi: 10.1177/0022002719861676
In this article, we study the political use of denial-of-service (DoS) attacks, a particular form of cyberattack that disables web services by flooding them with high levels of data traffic. We argue that websites in nondemocratic regimes should be especially prone to this type of attack, particularly around political focal points such as elections. This is due to two mechanisms: governments employ DoS attacks to censor regime-threatening information, while at the same time, activists use DoS attacks as a tool to publicly undermine the government’s authority. We analyze these mechanisms by relying on measurements of DoS attacks based on large-scale Internet traffic data. Our results show that in authoritarian countries, elections indeed increase the number of DoS attacks. However, these attacks do not seem to be directed primarily against the country itself but rather against other states that serve as hosts for news websites from this country.
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(2020): Das dreifache Asylroulette : Föderale Ungleichheiten in der deutschen Asylpraxis FluchtforschungsBlog
Vor drei Jahren identifizierten wir beunruhigende föderale Ungleichheiten bei den Entscheidungen des BAMF über Asylanträge. Unsere weitergehenden Forschungen zeigen nun, dass sich die großen Abweichungen 2017 fortsetzten. Zudem entscheiden sowohl die Verwaltungsgerichte bei der Beurteilung der Rekurse als auch die Ausländerbehörden bei den Abschiebungen im Vergleich der Bundesländer höchst unterschiedlich. Eine detailliertere Asylstatistik wäre in unserer Sicht ein erster Schritt, um diese verstörenden Divergenzen einzudämmen.
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(2020): Let’s Ask About Sex : Methodological Merits of the Sealed Envelope Technique in Face-to-Face Interviews KRUMPAL, Ivar, ed., Roger BERGER, ed.. Devianz und Subkulturen : Theorien, Methoden und empirische Befunde. Wiesbaden: Springer VS, 2020, pp. 123-149. ISBN 978-3-658-27227-2. Available under: doi: 10.1007/978-3-658-27228-9_5
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dc.contributor.author: Preisendörfer, Peter
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(2020): Forty-Eight Shades of Germany : Positive and Negative Discrimination in Federal Asylum Decision Making German Politics. Routledge, Taylor & Francis Group. 2020, 29(4), pp. 564-581. ISSN 0964-4008. eISSN 1743-8993. Available under: doi: 10.1080/09644008.2019.1707810
Individual asylum seekers fail to obtain refugee status at considerably different rates cross- and sub-nationally. However, we do not know whether asylum seekers also face similar discriminatory potential when they appeal a negative decision and, if their appeal fails, when the authorities decide about their deportation. To fill this research gap, we examine inequities in these three stages of asylum decision making across the sixteen German Länder. We argue, based on principal-agent reasoning, that all three authorities empowered in this domain – the regional offices of the Federal Office for Migration and Refugees (BAMF), the administrative courts, and the immigration agencies of the states – consider their administrative, socio-economic, and political environments when making a decision. We demonstrate that positive and negative discrimination of asylum seekers does not stop with the initial decision by the Federal Office for Migration and Refugees, uncovering considerable spatial inequities in the aggregate rulings of the administrative courts on appeals by asylum seekers and the deportations for which the immigration offices of the Länder are responsible. The socio-economic characteristics of a Land and its political situation affect the choices the agents make at all three decision-making stages. Most notably, states with a government led by the Social Democratic Party, or with a long history of SPD dominance, have lower rates of negative decisions.
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The persistent challenge posed by the coronavirus crisis raises questions concerning the efficiency and fairness of the German healthcare system. Based on new representative survey data, this paper examines what Germans think of the system’s general strength and fairness. Whereas trust in the system’s ability to avoid the unequal treatment of different groups of the population is high, people are more skeptical when it comes to its strength and efficiency. Political preferences play a role here, with supporters of the right-wing populist Alternative for Germany (AfD) much more skeptical than those supporting the center-right Christian Democrats (CDU/CSU) and the Green Party. Trust in the healthcare system and political trust, especially in the truthfulness of the federal government’s information policy, are closely linked. Information policy, therefore, plays a crucial role when it comes to securing public trust in the healthcare system.
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One of the most important controversies in health economics concerns the question whether the imminent aging of the population in most OECD countries will place an additional burden on the tax payers who finance public health care systems. Proponents of the “red-herring hypothesis” argue that this is not the case because most of the correlation of age and health care expenditures (HCE) is due to the fact that the mortality rate rises with age and HCE rise steeply in the last years before death. The evidence regarding this hypothesis is, however, mixed. Our contribution to this debate is mainly methodological: We argue that the relationship of age, time to death (TTD) and HCE should be estimated non-parametrically. Using a large panel data set from the German Statutory Health Insurance, we first show that the parametric approach overestimates the expenditures of the high age classes and thus overstates the increase of future HCE due to aging. Secondly, we show that the non-parametric approach is particularly useful to answer the question whether age still has an impact on HCE once TTD is taken into account and find that it is clearly the case. This relationship is even more pronounced for long-term care expenditures (LTCE). We then show that the age-expenditure relationship is not stable over time: for many age classes, HCE in the last year of life grow considerably faster than HCE of survivors. We explore the impact of these findings on the simulation of future HCE and find that population aging will in fact contribute to rising HCE in the coming decades. We also find that the impact of different population projections provided by the statistical offices has a greater impact on these simulations than previously acknowledged. However, the total impact of demographics on future HCE and LTCE is dwarfed by the exogenous time trend, which is due to medical progress and increasing generosity of public LTC insurance.
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Research on the extent and causes of differentiated integration in the European Union has burgeoned in recent years. However, we still know little about citizens’ attitudes towards the phenomenon. In this article, we argue that both country- and individual-level factors should affect support for differentiated integration. Specifically, building on the difference between exemptive and discriminatory differentiation, we expect citizens of Southern member states to stronger oppose and those of Northern and Eastern member states to support the concept of a ‘multi-speed Europe’. On the individual level, we expect general attitudes towards politics and society to matter. Survey data largely corroborates our expectations: Support for differentiated integration is indeed much lower in Southern Europe. On the individual level, we find that supporters are highly educated and marked by liberal-conservative attitudes. In contrast to general EU support, we do not find robust correlations with socio-demographic variables.
Origin (projects)
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(2020): Berufswünsche geflüchteter Jugendlicher und junger Erwachsener BWP Berufsbildung in Wissenschaft und Praxis. Bundesinstitut für Berufsbildung. 2020, 49(1), pp. 45-47. ISSN 0341-4515
Das System der beruflichen Bildung leistet einen erheblichen Beitrag zur Integration von Jugendlichen und jungen Erwachsenen mit Fluchthintergrund. Die meisten Bundesländer haben für diese Zielgruppe spezifische Vorbereitungsklassen mit dem Fokus auf Spracherwerb und berufliche Orientierung eingerichtet. Ziel der Bildungsgänge ist der Verbleib der Lernenden im Bildungssystem, im Idealfall der Beginn einer Ausbildung. Inwiefern sich dies mit den beruflichen Wünschen junger Geflüchteter deckt, untersucht dieser Beitrag am Beispiel des Regierungsbezirks Freiburg.
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Leaks are pervasive in politics. Hence, many committees that nominally operate under secrecy de facto operate under the threat that information might be passed on to outsiders. We study theoretically and experimentally how this possibility affects the behavior of committee members and the decision-making accuracy. Our theoretical analysis generates two major predictions. First, a committee operating under the threat of leaks is equivalent to a formally transparent committee in terms of the probabilities of project implementation as well as welfare (despite differences in individual voting behavior). Second, the threat of leaks causes a committee to recommend rejection of a project whenever precise information has been shared among committee members. As a consequence, a status-quo bias arises. Our laboratory results confirm these predictions despite subjects communicating less strategically than predicted.
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(2020): Ein großer Unterschied mit kleinen Folgen? : Einwanderungsskeptische Einstellungen von Frauen und Männern im Zeitverlauf MAYS, Anja, ed. and others. Grundlagen – Methoden – Anwendungen in den Sozialwissenschaften : Festschrift für Steffen-M. Kühnel. Wiesbaden: Springer VS, 2020, pp. 579-604. ISBN 978-3-658-15628-2. Available under: doi: 10.1007/978-3-658-15629-9_31
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