Publikationsliste KOPS

This paper examines the transnational dimensions of low-level conflict and state repression. In this regard, special emphasis is placed on the role of political regimes. Drawing on a simple model, we argue that democracy has opposing effects on conflict intensity. On one hand, democracy satisfies demand for political participation and thus reduces conflict potential, while, on the other hand, we highlight that domestic democracy may spur dissatisfaction and conflict abroad, which, in turn, may induce conflict spillovers. As a result, the net effect of democracy on low-level conflict and state repression is ambiguous and depends on the level of democracy in the neighborhood: We predict that democracy is more pacifying in democratic environments and may spur conflict in autocratic environments. By the symmetry of the model, we also predict that democratic environments are more pacifying for democratic countries and may spur conflict in autocracies. Empirical evidence using panel data on different types of low-level conflict and state repression for 160 countries in the period from 1950 to 2011 supports these hypotheses. Additionally, two case studies illustrate the mechanisms of our model.

Age heterogeneity in Western workforces is increasing, generating potential informational benefits as well as harmful age‐based social categorizations. When can firms benefit from age heterogeneity? Building on the categorization‐elaboration model, we propose the average age distance between employees as a fundamental contingency. Using a longitudinal archival sample of 3,336 Belgian firms (2012–2015), we find that firms with a high level of age heterogeneity are less productive when employees' average distance is great (Study 1). Through an online experiment with 260 US participants, we show that employees in age‐heterogeneous workforces are less willing to engage in inter‐age cooperative contact and knowledge exchange under a great level of average age distance (Study 2). Our findings support that great distances foster age‐based social categorizations that undermine the productive information elaborations between employees of different ages. This broadens our knowledge on the implications of workforce age diversity and helps organizations understand when they can(not) reap the productivity benefits of their age‐diverse workforce. Moreover, this study's theory and implications are relevant to other types of diversity for which both heterogeneity and distance are meaningful constructs. We also discuss the practical implications of this study.

Since 2015, an enormous number of refugees have migrated to Germany. To obtain qualifi ed jobs, many of them attend prevocational preparation classes. The aims of these classes are mainly the acquisition of German language skills and preparation for subsequent vocational education and training. This paper examines (1) the transitions of young refugees after prevocational preparation classes and (2) what factors predict the transition to the next educational step. Using data from the fi rst two measurement points of a longitudinal survey (t1 during the prevocational preparation class and t2 one year later), we surveyed 333 students in Southwest Germany (82% male; mean age = 18.9 years). Instruments included an online questionnaire, an online test of cognitive ability, and an online test of German language skills. Approximately 37 percent of the students repeated the prevocational preparation class, whereas 60 percent moved on to the next educational step. German language skills at t1 and contact with people helping refugees (t1) predicted the probability of the transition to a “regular” educational pathway. Other variables, such as the educational background of the young refugees and of their parents, personality, motivation, and aspirations, had no significant effects. The findings can be interpreted in terms of the primary (language skills) and secondary eff ects of refugees’ ethnic background (information about the education system through contact with locals).

Pandemics have historically shaped the world of work in various ways. With COVID-19 presenting as a global pandemic, there is much speculation about the impact that this crisis will have for the future of work and for people working in organizations. In this article, we discuss 10 of the most relevant research and practice topics in the field of industrial and organizational (IO) psychology that will likely be impacted by COVID-19. For each of these topics, the pandemic crisis is creating new work-related challenges, but also presenting various opportunities. The topics discussed herein include occupational health and safety, work-family issues, telecommuting, virtual teamwork, job insecurity, precarious work, leadership, human resources policy, the aging workforce, and careers. This article sets the stage for further discussion of various ways in which IO psychology research and practice can address the impacts of COVID- 19 for work and organizational processes that are affecting workers now and will shape the future of work and organizations in both the short and long term. This article concludes by inviting IO psychology researchers and practitioners to address the challenges and opportunities of COVID-19 head-on by proactively innovating the work that we do in support of workers, organizations, and society as a whole.

Regional and Federal Studies’30th anniversary offers an opportunity to takestock of the state of the discipline and of the journal. We make four claims.First, the multi-level nature of the political world has intensified in the last 30years. Second, the approaches to studying this changing world have evolvedthrough a quantitative and comparative turn.Regional and Federal Studieshas embraced these developments whilst remaining faithful to its tradition ofrich conceptual and case-study work. Third, the journal has contributed tothe‘territorialization’of mainstream political science as manyfields of studyhave gradually recognized the limitations of national- or single-level analyses.Finally, the journal itself has diversified in terms of approaches, methods,geographical coverage, and gender balance of author profiles, although werecognize there is more to do. We view further comparative research on theGlobal South as a particularly important research avenue.

Was tun, wenn die Feldforschung ausfällt? Eigentlich wollte der Politikwissenschaftler Fabian Bergmann für seine Doktorarbeit zu den indigenen Sámi in Norwegen und Schweden reisen. Dann kam Corona. Nun steht das Projekt vor der Schwierigkeit, Kontakte auf Distanz zu knüpfen.

The study of policy feedback on public attitudes and policy preferences has become a growing area of research in recent years. Scholars in the tradition of Pierson usually argue that positive, self-reinforcing feedback effects dominate (that is, attitudes are commensurate with existing institutions), whereas the public thermostat model developed by Wlezien and Soroka expects negative, self-undermining feedback. Moving beyond the blunt distinction between positive and negative feedback, this article develops and proposes a more fine-grained typology of feedback effects that distinguishes between accelerating, self-reinforcing and self-undermining, specific and general, as well as long- and short-term dynamic feedback. The authors apply this typology in an analysis of public opinion on government spending in different areas of the welfare state for twenty-one OECD countries, employing a pseudo-panel approach. The empirical analysis confirms the usefulness of this typology since it shows that different types of feedback effects can be observed empirically.

Background
Decision aid developers have to convey complex task-specific numeric information in a way that minimizes bias and promotes understanding of the options available within a particular decision. Whereas our companion paper summarizes fundamental issues, this article focuses on more complex, task-specific aspects of presenting numeric information in patient decision aids.

Methods
As part of the International Patient Decision Aids Standards third evidence update, we gathered an expert panel of 9 international experts who revised and expanded the topics covered in the 2013 review working in groups of 2 to 3 to update the evidence, based on their expertise and targeted searches of the literature. The full panel then reviewed and provided additional revisions, reaching consensus on the final version.

Results
Five of the 10 topics addressed more complex task-specific issues. We found strong evidence for using independent event rates and/or incremental absolute risk differences for the effect size of test and screening outcomes. Simple visual formats can help to reduce common judgment biases and enhance comprehension but can be misleading if not well designed. Graph literacy can moderate the effectiveness of visual formats and hence should be considered in tool design. There is less evidence supporting the inclusion of personalized and interactive risk estimates.

Discussion
More complex numeric information. such as the size of the benefits and harms for decision options, can be better understood by using incremental absolute risk differences alongside well-designed visual formats that consider the graph literacy of the intended audience. More research is needed into when and how to use personalized and/or interactive risk estimates because their complexity and accessibility may affect their feasibility in clinical practice.

Diese Replik setzt sich mit dem ZAR-Aufsatz von Ursula Gräfin Praschma auseinander, in dem die Vizepräsidentin des Bundesamts für Migration und Flüchtlinge (BAMF) wissenschaftlichen Studien zu regional divergierenden Entscheidungspraktiken im deutschen Asylsystem ihre Gültigkeit abgesprochen hat. Der Artikel zeigt, dass weiterhin beachtliche Ungleichheiten im Asylvollzug bestehen. Der Verfasser argumentiert, dass die Darlegungen der BAMF-Vizepräsidentin nicht unabhängig validierbar sind und so nicht die wissenschaftlichen Gütekriterien erfüllen, denen auch publizierte Auswertungen des BAMF genügen müssen. Der Autor plädiert für eine evidenzbasierte Asylpolitik, zu welcher der institutionalisierte Zugang zu Asylstatistiken, die öffentliche Darlegung zentraler Verteilungs- und Entscheidungspraktiken wie auch die transparente Darstellung BAMF-interner Analysen zu Schutzquotenabweichungen gehören.

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Effective states govern by some combination of enforcement and voluntary compliance. To contain the COVID-19 pandemic, a critical decision is the extent to which policy makers rely on voluntary as opposed to enforced compliance, and nations vary along this dimension. While enforcement may secure higher compliance, there is experimental and other evidence that it may also crowd out voluntary motivation. How does enforcement affect citizens' support for anti-COVID-19 policies? A survey conducted with 4,799 respondents toward the end of the first lockdown in Germany suggests that a substantial share of the population will support measures more under voluntary than under enforced implementation. Negative responses to enforcement-termed control aversion-vary across the nature of the policy intervention (e.g., they are rare for masks and frequent for vaccination and a cell-phone tracing app). Control aversion is less common among those with greater trust in the government and the information it provides, and among those who were brought up under the coercive regime of East Germany. Taking account of the likely effectiveness of enforcement and the extent to which near-universal compliance is crucial, the differing degrees of opposition to enforcement across policies suggest that for some anti-COVID-19 policies an enforced mandate would be unwise, while for others it would be essential. Similar reasoning may also be relevant for policies to address future pandemics and other societal challenges like climate change.