The influence of non-regulatory factors on asylum decisions
Study by researchers from the Nuremberg Institute for Employment Research (IAB), the University of Konstanz and the University of Bamberg concludes that the chances of obtaining asylum in a specific region depend upon how sceptical of migration its population and government are.
For years, German asylum policy has been criticized for the wide regional variation in a person's chances of obtaining asylum or being protected in some other way. Especially after the so-called "refugee crisis", the proportion of applicants who receive asylum has often differed by double-digit percentages between the country's regional asylum centres. However, because of the limited data available until now, there has not been any way to clearly show whether these differences could be attributed to political preferences.
A recent study by researchers from the Nuremberg Institute for Employment Research (IAB), the University of Konstanz and the University of Bamberg shares new findings. The study is based on extensive individual data and confirms earlier findings that the preferences of a region's population and its state government contribute to asylum seekers' risk of being denied protection by the Federal Office for Migration and Refugees (BAMF). A person's individual chance of being granted protection is smaller in regions where the population is sceptical of immigration. The same applies to regions with a restrictive immigration policy. In this context, the study focused on restrictive implementation of the residency requirement as well as the provision of non-monetary social benefits (instead of cash payments) for asylum seekers. The findings were based on quantitative evaluation of the IAB-BAMF-SOEP survey of refugees.
Charged findings
These findings pose a challenge to the political authorities, as the decision on whether an asylum seeker receives protection should ideally only be based on the credible justification for their application or the situation in their country of origin. According to the team of authors – Lidwina Gundacker (IAB), Yuliya Kosyakova (IAB and University of Bamberg) and Gerald Schneider (University of Konstanz) – the fact that non-regulatory considerations play a role in asylum decisions by BAMF is damaging for the standing of the fundamental right to asylum for people who face political persecution. Using Muslim asylum seekers as an example, the authors demonstrate that their chances of receiving protection are systematically lower than for other asylum seekers.
In addition to this, the study shows that the political orientation of the current state governments has no measurable direct influence on the outcomes for asylum seekers. Unlike what one would expect, the chances of receiving protection are actually lower in German states whose governments have traditionally been led by the social democrats (SPD) than in states where the Christian democrats (CDU/CSU) have traditionally been in power. Contrary to statistical discrimination – a central thesis of the discrimination literature – the influence of regional immigration preferences on BAMF decisions does not systematically decrease when staff have greater knowledge of the situation in asylum seekers' countries of origin or when the workload in the asylum centres decreases. This means that discriminatory decision-making behaviour is not the result of high workloads or a lack of knowledge.
More training, independent evaluation and better data
According to the authors, the influence of non-regulatory factors could be reduced if BAMF staff received regular training and there was better monitoring of asylum procedures. So far, the German federal government has only reported on the outcomes of asylum procedures in response to parliamentary inquiries from the Left Party in the Bundestag. In light of continued differences in deciding asylum cases, the authors also recommend that the BAMF open itself up to independent evaluation of its decision-making procedures and systematize the publication of key statistics on asylum decisions in Germany.
Key facts
- Original publication: Lidwina Gundacker, Yuliya Kosyakova and Gerald Schneider. 2024. How regional attitudes towards immigration shape the chance to obtain asylum: Evidence from Germany. Migration Studies. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1093/migration/mnae002
- Study by researchers from the Nuremberg Institute for Employment Research (IAB), the University of Konstanz and the University of Bamberg concludes that the chances of obtaining asylum in a specific region depend upon how sceptical of migration its population and government are.
- The study was funded by the Cluster of Excellence "The Politics of Inequality" at the University of Konstanz.
- Gerald Schneider is a professor of international politics at the University of Konstanz and a principal investigator in the Cluster of Excellence "The Politics of Inequality".
- The Cluster of Excellence The Politics of Inequality studies the political causes and effects of inequality from an interdisciplinary perspective. The research focuses on some of the most pressing issues of our time: access to and distribution of (economic) resources, the global rise of populists, climate change and unfairly distributed educational opportunities.
